Summertime results offer some hope the US will achieve its World Cup goal, the quarterfinals.
The Eagles enter the world championship 3-3 in 2015. That's the best buildup since 2003, when the US posted a 6-3 pre-tournament record, and 1999, a 3-3 campaign. Heading into the 2007 and 2011 World Cups at 0-4 and 1-4, respectively, the team lacked momentum.
Taking a broader look, the USA's record over 2012-15 is 11-1-19, or 37.1 percent. As the team's winning percentage since 1976 is 32.3 percent, Mike Tolkin's charges effectively won 1 more game than would have been expected.
Few of these games, however, were against against so-called tier 1 nations. Over the current quadrennial, the US played T1 opponents only 6 of 31 occasions. That's better than the 4 it played leading up to the 2011 World Cup -- but rather worse than the 10 in both the 2007 and the 2003 cycles.
The USA's total number of games per quadrennial has rebounded. This cycle's 31 matches compare favorably with the 2011 and 2007 cycles, 21 and 22 games, respectively.
But the previous two quadrennials, 2003 and 1999, saw 29 and 37 games. So essentiallly America lost 2 World Cup cycles while replacing the Pacific Rim tournament with the Pacific Nations competition -- virtually the same competition.
Head to head, the US has never beaten Samoa in 4 matches, nor Scotland in 6 (counting A matches), nor South Africa in 3. The Eagles' record against Japan is 13-1-8.
This July, the Eagles topped Japan 23-18 in Sacramento, a week after falling to Samoa 21-16 in San Jose. Samoan games have always been close, originating with 1999's 27-20 loss in San Francisco. The win over the Brave Blossoms was America's first in 6 games dating to 2008.
As to the T1 teams, Scotland topped the US 24-6 in Houston in June 2014, while South Africa last met the Eagles at the 2007 World Cup, overwhelming Peter Thorburn's side 64-15.
Credit to Mike Tolkin's squad for publicly hewing to the quarterfinals target, which will probably require winning 3 of 4 matches, including 1 of 2 against Scotland and South Africa.
But USARFU's management, which floated the idea of after the 2011 world championship, is on the hook for the shortfall in total matches and T1 games. That's who deals with World Rugby's schedule makers.
The union often talks of a professional city-based league. Perhaps that will ultimately help the Eagles, but first it should aim for a better schedule.
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