On the playoffs and 'crapshoot syndrome'

Summarizing the collegiate round of 16, American Rugby News calls the national playoffs a 'crapshoot.' Meaning what?

Five of the eight first-round games are difficult to handicap beyond simple win-loss predictions, Brian Lowe writes. That's not because Brian doesn't know who's on first.

One important reason it's difficult to predict inter-territorial play is that the competitors do not prepare themselves for big games in a consistent way. Putting aside how they prepare for their opponents, most 'travel badly' and so perform erratically.

Minute after minute, game after game, championship after championship, the teams that have gone about their travel and pregame business with the least interruptions are the teams that have reached 90 percent or better of their potential when it counted most. OMBAC (late 80s to mid 90s), Aspen (mid 90s to the early part of this decade), and of course Cal are the leading exemplars.

One can make the same point about regional or lower-division standouts, and I think it's meaningful that the service academies, who understand discipline as well as anyone, would be covered by extension.

Success has many requirements, and sustained performance usually involves fulfilling a higher number of them, not to mention persistent innovation. One of them is focus. And so while there may be some good rugby this weekend in Balloon Park, a 40 48-team jamboree environment wouldn't seem the likely place to start addressing 'crapshoot syndrome.'

Comments

[Goeagles]

While I think the Albuquerque "festival" is an abomination, at least USA Rugby will be broadcasting some of these games online.

I haven't had my rant yet on Albuquerque so here it is:

USA Rugby made an incredibly poor decision by choosing Albuquerque as the venue for the Sweet 16. Many of the Men's D1 matches, which is clearly USA Rugby's most marketable domestic property, are being played at the same time which makes it difficult to watch multiple matches. With so many games going on at the same time, it will be difficult for Eagles and All-American selectors to get a proper look at players. It also discourages rugby enthusiasts from attending the event as they get little value from seeing 1-1.5 matches per day. I know a few people who are unaffiliated with any rugby team or club and have traveled to Sweet 16 venues in the past because they had a chance to watch many matches that they were interested in. This is not possible this year. As well, the location of Albuquerque is absurd. Not only is there a lack of direct flights there, but it is not centrally located at all.

What should have happened is that there should have been 2 or 3 locations for Sweet 16 matches out of Glendale (Colorado), Berkeley and West Point. These facilities actually have stands (and scoreboards), something that is important in creating the image that rugby is a legitimate sport. As well, they allow supporters and general fans of the game in various areas of the country to attend the matches they wish to as all of these venues are within 1 hour of major airports (Denver, NY and SF/Oakland). It also makes the players feel like they are part of something important, not some bizarre festival in a "Balloon Park."

At least Stanford continues to be a decent venue for the Final Four, but hopefully USA Rugby will come to their senses next year regarding Sweet 16.

[College Rugby Fan]

Anyone else having trouble logging onto the USA Rugby website??

[Doug Porter]

Yeah, usarugby.org's not responding (or, doing so very slowly). It shouldn't be a surprise, the site's always a little bit slow and I would expect a pretty good load on it today.

As far as I can tell Mobile Score isn't being updated for the early scores. I guess next time we'll have to win more games so we can be there ourselves.

It's a shame, I'm prepared to get very little work done today so I can follow the games and so far I can't follow them.

[CRF]

Word from ABQ is SDSU 22 Ark St. 3 at the half. Of course since all the games are going on at once, my man there can only watch one and that's the only score he could give me currently.

[CRF]

According to mobilescore, St. Mary's 14 AFA 14. I sure would like to be watching that.

[CRF]

SDSU 22 ASU 10, 30 minutes remaining.

[M.O.]

Thanks, any more scoring updates is appreciated. This is pretty tired by USA Rugby for their website to crash on the first day.

[M.O.]

Thanks, any more scoring updates is appreciated. This is pretty tired by USA Rugby for their web cast not to work on the first day.

[P. Kane]

Very disappointing. We have a team get together scheduled for tomorrow afternoon to watch the games on the big screen. Wondering now if that's a waste of time.

[CRF]

AFA 21 SMC 19

[Goeagles]

CRF,

Thanks for the updates. It is a shame that they can't get the video working for this game. Maybe they can get it going and do CU-Utah instead.

[Andy R]

Whoever is responsible for the USA Rugby website should be fired - no questions asked. They have had the same problems whenever more than about a dozen people get on their site.

They should have realised that having all those teams at one venue playing at the same time the need for a big server was a no brainer.

Just goes to show all our Cipp money is being well spent?

[P. Kane]

The problem is that I believe they are only set up to do the matches that are taking place on "Field 1" so if CU-Utah is not on that field, there's no chance.

[Mike Tafel]

The video is working fine for me. It gets stuck buffering sometimes, but I can get it going again no problem.

[P. Kane]

You must be one of the lucky dozen, Mike.

[Wattsy]

Any final on the SDSU v ASU match?

[Goeagles]

So just to review: awful location and setup followed by updates on only ONE game, which appears to not be updating anymore unless they are playing 67+ minute halves these days. Brilliant work. I'm not going to complain about the video because they haven't had it in the past, but the lack of score updates is appalling.

[M.O.]

Is field 1 at least a stadium field with bleachers or is it just lined with fans like a public park?

[P. Kane]

Final SDSU 32 ASU 15

At halftime of the Cal-UT game, word was that Cal was up somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-0. I'll have a definitive score on that shortly.

[Goeagles]

MobileScore now has SMC up 33-21 on AFA.

[P. Kane]

My webcast is finally working. 33-26 SMC in the lead.

[Mike Tafel]

40-26 SMC up on Air Force

[Goeagles]

So while browsing around ESPN.com just now, I saw this link (image of the link)

http://adsatt.espn.go.com/ad/sponsors/ESPN_In_House_Marketing/Mar_2008/espn-308x68-1316.gif

Now I don't know about you, but this really ticks me off. This isn't about any dislike for rugby league; I like the sport a lot, although nowhere near as much as rugby union. However, can anyone explain to me how rugby league, a sport that maybe, maybe has 1 full time staff member and 10 teams in this country manages to get this kind of exposure while USA Rugby, with double digit full time staff, a 7 figure annual budget and 60k+ players doesn't get any kind of television exposure. It's absolutely pathetic and shows that some real, serious change is needed.

[CRF]

WOW. That is really bad. Hopefully there is some way to track the number of people who tried to log onto the site to watch the games today and use that as a marketing tool to a legit broadcast company.

[Doug Porter]

Video just came up for me. Actually looks really good. St Mary's just scored to make it 52-40 (pending kick)

[Mike Tafel]

That add on espn is for the Engage Super League of England (Bradford, Wigan, St. Helens, etc) not the American one.

[Cheyanquí]

Goeagles,

That is because the League poobahs in Ozzy see the USA as their best growth market.

I think that the OzLeague people hope to find markets where they can frame the term "rugby" as to mean "league".

Since in the US, the american public is ignorant to "rugby", they have more hope for us.

The AMNRL runs on a relative shoestring. Each team has a 1v1 sponsorship with an Oz NRL team. Since there are relatively few teams in the USA (16 or so in the AMNRL), it doesn't represent much cost.

Contrast that with trying to get IRB money into the USA.

[Where is it]

I must say That the online video would be great....if you could find it.

Can someone post the link that I want to go to!?!?!?!

[Flynn Hagerty]

"However, can anyone explain to me how rugby league, a sport that maybe, maybe has 1 full time staff member and 10 teams in this country manages to get this kind of exposure while USA Rugby, with double digit full time staff, a 7 figure annual budget and 60k+ players doesn't get any kind of television exposure. It's absolutely pathetic and shows that some real, serious change is needed."

Two reasons:

1) 99% of people in america have no clue there are two rugbys. I honestly think whoever approved that thought it was rugby union.

2) Super League probably offered it to them for nothing. When the IRB can't offer something to ESPN online for free, what can we expect?

[Goeagles]

Finals according to Mobile Score:

Cal Poly 51, Army 27
Cal 100, Tennessee 3
BYU 48, Dartmouth 22
SMC 52, Air Force 40
Kutztown 27, Bowling Green 23
SDSU 32, Arkansas St 15

Still awaiting Colorado-Utah and Penn St-Minnesota.

[collegiate fan]

Looks like there were a couple barnburners on day 1...Will the games that were available to be viewed be posted on the site or can you only view them live? usarugby.org isn't working for me right now...

[CRF]

Ok, here's the rundown from my man on the ground in ABQ:

1. USA Rugby had no clue there were any problems with the website until my man told the powers that be there that it was happening. That is why they sent the email with the direct link to the webcast. Too little too late for today, but hopefully it will fix the problems for tomorrow.

2. The Cal score is an anomoly. Rumor is that UT played a less than full strength side (although Call probably played a "c side" itself) in order to focus its efforts on tomorrow's match and ideally get the South a better seed for next year.

3. San Diego State is the real deal, having trained over the past month with OMBAC.

4. The St. Mary's-Air Force game had virtually no defense, as the score would suggest, with each team essentially scoring at will. St. Mary's #8 is legit. And overall, they may be the best coached team at the balloon park.

5. The two best matches of the day, also as evidenced by the scores, were CU-Utah and BG-Kutz. Both matches featured some incredible individual performances, especially from the BG flyhalf Nick Vivani, who from what I can tell might be the front runner to wear the #10 jersey in the 2011 RWC.

Here's to hoping Cal Poly can give Cal a decent challenge tomorrow and that St. Mary's v. Kutztown lives up to its potential.

I think Penn State and their new crop of imports will take CU. St. Mary's-Kutztown is a tossup, I'm conflicted because part of me wants the East Coast Golden Bears and part of me wants the primarily American-born Gaels. The best match of the day could very well be SDSU v. BYU. Dan Payne has his kids playing extremely well and I wouldn't be shocked at an upset in this one with the Aztecs moving on.

[Not impressed]

So it takes me well into the 2nd day to get live feed from the freakin' Balloon circus and when I do what do I get?
Freakin' Billy Smart and Coco the Clown talking up a fascinating contest between those 2 powerhouse rugby giants of Women's D2 rugby Norwich and Shippensberg.

Watched the first 120 seconds, saw the ball dropped 5 times, then got up in disgust.

I really do start to ask why we bother paying our Cipp money to these clowns?

Makes me want to get our own insurance and tell them to stuff it!

[Nick]

Utah vs CU was an amazing game. Yes it would be awesome to have a tape of that game, but it can't happen for every game.

For people complaining about the Norwich vs Ship. match, stop. Stop it right now. That game was actually great, but importantly it's essential to show some games from all divisions, and the balance was definitely in favor of mens games. The women deserve to have the spotlight some of the time.

USA rugby is aware that there were bandwidth issues. The demand was well in excess of expectations. The video setup was actually very good. They had two tall scaffolds, and a roaming camera on the ground. They had a commentary platform, and a tent with a team of professional editors who switched from camera to camera continually to try to give you ungrateful bas****s some coverage.